Descriptive and predictive growth curves in energy system analysis [Elektronisk resurs]

• This study reviews a variety of growth curve models and the theoretical frameworks that lay behind them. In many systems, growth patterns are, or must, ultimately be subjected to some form of limitation. A number of curve models have been developed to describe and predict such behaviours. Symmetric growth curves have frequently been used for forecasting fossil fuel production, but others have expressed a need for more flexible and asymmetric models. A number of examples show differences and applications of various growth curve models. It is concluded that these growth curve models can be utilised as forecasting tools, but are do not necessarily provide better predictions than any other method. Consequently, growth curve models and other forecasting methods should be used together to provide a triangulated forecast. Furthermore, the growth curve methodology offers a simple tool for resource management to determine what might happen to future production if resource availability poses a problem. In the light of peak oil and the awareness of natural resources as a basis for the continued well-being of society and mankind, resource management should be an important factor in future social planning. 

Ämnesord

Natural Sciences  (hsv)

Mathematics  (hsv)

Other Mathematics  (hsv)

Naturvetenskap  (hsv)

Matematik  (hsv)

Annan matematik  (hsv)

Natural Sciences  (hsv)

Physical Sciences  (hsv)

Naturvetenskap  (hsv)

Fysik  (hsv)

Natural Sciences  (hsv)

Earth and Related Environmental Sciences  (hsv)

Other Earth and Related Environmental Sciences  (hsv)

Naturvetenskap  (hsv)

Geovetenskap och miljövetenskap  (hsv)

Annan geovetenskap och miljövetenskap  (hsv)

Engineering and Technology  (hsv)

Other Engineering and Technologies  (hsv)

Other Engineering and Technologies not elsewhere specified  (hsv)

Teknik och teknologier  (hsv)

Annan teknik  (hsv)

Övrig annan teknik  (hsv)

MATHEMATICS  (svep)

Other mathematics  (svep)

MATEMATIK  (svep)

Övrig matematik  (svep)

NATURAL SCIENCES  (svep)

Physics  (svep)

NATURVETENSKAP  (svep)

Fysik  (svep)

NATURAL SCIENCES  (svep)

Earth sciences  (svep)

Other earth sciences  (svep)

NATURVETENSKAP  (svep)

Geovetenskap  (svep)

Övrig geovetenskap  (svep)

TECHNOLOGY  (svep)

Engineering physics  (svep)

Other engineering physics  (svep)

TEKNIKVETENSKAP  (svep)

Teknisk fysik  (svep)

Övrig teknisk fysik  (svep)

Physics with specialization in Global Energy Resources  (uu)

Fysik med inriktning mot globala energiresurser  (uu)

Indexterm och SAB-rubrik

Growth curve models

curve fitting

logistic model

resource management